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Oscar Predictions 2016

February 24, 2016


Like last year’s Oscar post, here is a repeat of some notes before the predictions:

This is not an endorsement of the predicted winners.  It is more a summary of the other award institutions that have also presented awards thus far plus other recent Oscar trends.

This is also not an endorsement of the holy status given to the Oscars.  I do see the movies nominated in major categories but I stopped watching the Oscar telecast around ten years ago.  Still, it’s fun to predict.


For the predicted winners, the levels of strength are noted as follows:

(1)  unstoppable; pretty well a shoo-in

(2)  front-runner

(3)  ahead in the race but just barely


For the possible upsets, the levels of strength are as follows:

(4)  very strong possible upset

(5)  possible upset

(6)  long-shot / dark-horse


And now, on to the predictions:

Best Picture:  (3) The Revenant; (4) Spotlight; (5) The Big Short; (6) Mad Max: Fury Road; The Martian

Best Director:  (2) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarratu (The Revenant); (5) George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road); (6) Tom McCarthy (Spotlight); Adam McKay (The Big Short)

Best Actor: (1) Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant); (6) Matt Damon (The Martian); Michael Fassbeneder (Steve Jobs)

Best Actress:  (1) Brie Larson (Room); (6) Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn); Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

Best Supporting Actor:  (3) Sylvester Stallone (Creed); (4) Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) ; (6) Tom Hardy (The Revenant); Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)

Best Supporting Actress: (3) Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl); (4) Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs); (6) all other nominees

Best Original Screenplay:  (1) Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

Best Adapted Screenplay:  (1) Charles Randolph and Adam McKay (The Big Short); (6) Emma Donoghue (Room)

Best Foreign Language Film:  (1) Son of Saul (Hungary); (6) Mustang (France)

Best Documentary:  (1) Amy; (6) Cartel Land

Best Animated Film:  (1) Inside Out; (6) Anomalisa


For those of you who watch the ceremony, enjoy it.  I’ll think of you as I get up early the next day after a full sleep.


Dennis Bowman


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