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Oscar Predictions for the 2014 Movie Year

February 17, 2015

Like last year’s Oscar post, here is a repeat of last year’s notes before the predictions:

This is not an endorsement of the predicted winners.  It is more a summary of the other award institutions that have also presented awards thus far plus other recent Oscar trends.

This is also not an endorsement of the holy status given to the Oscars.  I do see the movies nominated in major categories but I stopped watching the Oscar telecast around six years ago.  Still, it’s fun to predict.


For the predicted winners, the levels of strength are noted as follows:

(1)  unstoppable; pretty well a shoo-in

(2)  front-runner

(3)  ahead in the race but just barely


For the possible upsets, the levels of strength are as follows:

(4)  very strong possible upset

(5)  possible upset

(6)  long-shot / dark-horse


And on to the predictions:


Best Picture:    (3) Birdman;   (4) Boyhood

Best Director:    (3) Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman):   (4) Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Best Actor:    (3) Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything);   (4) Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Best Actress:    (1) Julianne Moore (Still Alice);   (6) Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

Best Supporting Actor:    (1) J.K. Simmons (Whiplash);   (6) Edward Norton (Birdman)

Best Supporting Actress:    (1) Patricia Arquette (Boyhood);   (6) Emma Stone (Birdman)

Best Original Screenplay:    (3) W. Anderson / H. Gunness (The Grand Budapest Hotel);   (4) Innaritu/Giacobone/Dinelaris/Bo (Birdman);   (6) Richard Linkater (Boyhood)

Best Adapted Screenplay:    (3) Graham Moore (The Imitation Game);   (4) Anthony McCarten (The Theory of Everything)

Best Foreign Language Film:    (2) Ida (Poland);   (5) Leviathan (Russia);   (6) all other nominees

Best Documentary:    (1) CitizenFour

Best Animated Film:    (2) How to Train Your Dragon 2;   (5) The Tale of Princess Kaguya


To those of you who stay up late to watch the ceremony, enjoy.


Dennis Bowman


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One Comment
  1. Jean Gilbert permalink

    Excellent predictions!

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