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Oscar Predictions for the 2013 Movie Year

February 21, 2014

Like last year’s Oscar post, here are a few notes before the predictions:

Firstly, this is not an endorsement of the predicted winners.  It is more a summary of the other award institutions that have also presented awards thus far plus other recent Oscar trends.

This is also not an endorsement of the holy status given to the Oscars.  I do see the movies nominated in major categories but I stopped watching the Oscar telecast around five years ago.  Still, it’s fun to predict.

For the predicted winners, the levels of strength are noted as follows:

(1)  unstoppable; pretty well a shoo-in

(2)  front-runner

(3)  ahead in the race but just barely

For the possible upsets, the levels of strength are as follows:

(4)  very strong possible upset

(5)  possible upset

(6)  long-shot / dark-horse

And on to the predictions:

Best Picture:    (3)  12 Years a Slave;   (4)  Gravity;   (6)  American Hustle.

Best Director:   (3)  Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity);  (4) Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave);  (6)  David Russell (American Hustle)

Best Actor:   (2)  Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club):  (5) Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave);  (6)  all other nominees

Best Actress:   (1) Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine);  (6) Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Best Suporting Actor:   (1) Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club);   (6) Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips);  Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave);  Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Best Supporting Actress:   (3) Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave);  (4) Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Best Original Screenplay:   (3) Eric Singer / David Russell (American Hustle);  (4) Spike Jonze (Her)

Best Adapted Screenplay:   (3) John Ridley (12 Years a Slave);  (4) Billy Ray (Captain Phillips);  (6) all other nominees

Best Foreign Language Film:   (1) The Great Beauty (Italy);  (6) all other nominees

Best Documentary:  (3) The Act of Killing;  (4) 20 Feet from Stardom;  (6) The Square

Best Animated Film:  (1) Frozen;  (6) The Wind Rises;  Ernest and Celestine

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