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Oscar Predictions 2012

February 18, 2013

A few notes before the predictions:

Firstly, this is not an endorsement of the predicted winners.  It is more a summary of the other award institutions that have also presented awards thus far plus other recent Oscar trends including the nominations themselves.

This is also not an endorsement of the holy status given to the Oscars by many who often treat every Oscar announcement as though God Has Spoken.  There are many times the Oscar vote showed that nasty politics trumped merit.  Still, the nominees and winners of recent past years have shown some improvement in voting patterns.  In any case, the predicting is just plain fun.

For the predicted winners, the levels of strength are noted as follows:

(1)  unstoppable; pretty well a shoo-in

(2)  front-runner

(3)  ahead in the race but just barely

For the possible upsets, the levels of strength are as follows:

(4)  very strong possible upset

(5)  possible upset

(6)  long-shot / dark-horse

And on to the predictions:

Best Picture:     (3)  Argo;       (4)   Lincoln;      (5)   Silver Linings Playbook;   Amour;     (6)   Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director:   (3)  Steven Spielberg (Lincoln);       (4)  Michael Haneke (Amour);   David Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Actor:   (1)  Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln);       (6)  Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook);  Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Best Actress:   (3)  Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook);       (4)  Emmanuelle Riva (Amour);     (5)  Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Supporting Actor:   (3)  Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln);        (4)  Robert De Niro (Sliver Linings Playbook;   Alan Arkin (Argo);      (5)  Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained);  Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Best Supporting Actress:   (1)  Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables);       (6)  Sally Field (Lincoln);  Amy Adams (The Master);  Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Original Screenplay:    (3)  Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained);       (4)  Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty);     (6)  Michael Haneke (Amour)

Best Adapted Screenplay:   (3)  Chris Terrio (Argo);       (4)  Tony Kushner (Lincoln);     (5)  David Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Foreign Language Film:   (1)  Amour;

Best Documentary Feature:   (2)  Searching for Sugar Man;       (5)  The Gatekeepers

Best Animated Feature:   (3)  Wreck-It Ralph;       (4)  Brave;     (6)  Frankenweenie


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